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[Shop] Change all "lucky" words in ML to "fixed".

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Post time 2019-7-9 01:05 AM | Show all posts |Read mode

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According to Google ;
luck

/lʌk/Learn to pronounce




noun

  • 1.
    success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions







But in ML, everyone know that the lucky spin mechanism is controlled and require such amount of payment before getting the prize so this is not counted as luck. Especially when a new Epic skin is for sale and there is lucky box event where you were given a chance of winning the epic skin but so far, after playing this game for more than 3 years, I never seem to heard any news about people won an epic skin by just a single spin. In mathematically manner, out of 14 items and 4 were excluded, this mean your probability of winning the epic skin and every other items is 1 out of 10. But obviously, after excluded 4 unwanted prize, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd spin will always go straight to fragments, emblems and when none left, you will get normal skin. So where is the luck in that, this event should be called "fixed-diamond mechanism box". Pay a required amount of diamonds first then the system will give you the luck you deserve.


Same goes for the normal lucky spin, even if you spin for almost 10 times, if the ticket you spent haven't reach it's requirements, the system won't give you the prize you deserve, even if you have godlike luck.


That's all, I hope Moonton will change all "lucky" words in ML into "fixed" so the definition of luck can be maintained.




Post time 2019-7-9 09:18 PM | Show all posts
there is a very small chance of winning time limited epic from first spin in lucky spin event. most probably 0.01%. And that is really low. the more you spin more chances you have. usually it will be 9th or 10th spin. but my friend got moscov time limited on 7th spin. i saw bluepanda got one at 6th or 7th spin too. they were lucky.same goes for mahic wheel, or bingo event too.
Post time 2019-7-9 04:59 PM | Show all posts
I got Athena Asamiya skin for only 120 dias :

- I spun 5 times and got 5 Athena's skins 1 day trial (50 dias)
- At first I felt it's enough but I want a 3 days trial or maybe 7 days
- So I spun again and after 6 or 7 times still got 1 day trials and next I got Athena skin instead

Total 110-120 dias yess I'm the lucky bastard
Post time 2019-7-9 01:45 AM | Show all posts
Edited by irezer at 2019-7-9 11:48 AM
But in ML, everyone know that the lucky spin mechanism is controlled and require such amount of payment before getting the prize

The chance increase depends at how much time you've spin . Once i spent 800 ticket to get a hero ( have not spin since the last time i got skin from lucky spin which mean there is no chance increase ) , and i spin again and it cost me 1500 before i get again the hero for the second time (i got battlepoint lol).

There will be a limit where the chance will reach 100% but i don't sure how many spin to reach that chance ( only developer know it ) .

The only fixed draw in mobile legend is the magic draw , where if you are not lucky between 200 drawing , the magic luck will guarantee you magic crystal (for legend skin) , so you don't spend diamond above the maximum limit .

But that doesn't mean you cannot get magic crystal when your magic luck is at 52 , but the chance is very very low , the 200 itself is just act as a limit , the draw rate itself is still there .


In mathematically manner, out of 14 items and 4 were excluded, this mean your probability of winning the epic skin and every other items is 1 out of 10. But obviously, after excluded 4 unwanted prize, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd spin will always go straight to fragments, emblems and when none left, you will get normal skin.

I'm not mobile legend developer , but i do sure know some knowledge .

In normal condition , yes , the probability of epic skin is 1 out of 10 if you remove 4 from 14 .
But that is not how it works in this draw.
Each item has it own drop rate.
The lucky spin will iterate trough each item to check they drop or not , and if none of them drop , it will iterate again from start.
For example , there is 4 item , item 1 have 40% chance , item 2 have 50% chance , item 3 have 20% chance , and  grandprize have 0.01% chance to drop.
The server will check whether item 1 drop , and for example , oops , it didn't drop , continue to item 2 , the server roll the dice and it drops ! the server will give the player the item 2 and didn't check for item 3 and grandprize . Ok now item 2 is out of the list , and the server will check for item 1,3,and grandprize , starting from 1 again .
And when there's only 1 item left (can be grandprize , or item 1 , or item 2 , or item 3 ) , the server have no other item to check for drop rate so the server will just drop the last item  ( become 100% chance ) .

The reason nobody get the grandprize in first spin is not because the draw rate is rigged , but because they win the previous item before even the server is iterating trough the grandprize .



Same goes for the normal lucky spin, even if you spin for almost 10 times, if the ticket you spent haven't reach it's requirements, the system won't give you the prize you deserve, even if you have godlike luck.

This is false assumption , the draw rate increased with each spin .
Many people get the feeling below in lucky spin
Hey , everytime i spin above 50 time ( 1000 ticket ) , it almost guaranteed to get the hero/skin with each spin

WARNING : MATH AHEAD

Let me explain why , for example , we gonna make the normal drawrate 0.4% ( i don't know what is the real draw rate in mobile legend , this is just an example ! ) .
1 Spin mean 0.4% multiply by 1
2 Spin mean 0.4% multiply by 2
and so on .
When you reach 50 spin , then you get 20% chance .
And that's a huge chance .
That's why you mostly get it above 50 spin , because 20% is already a huge chance to get the hero/skin .
And it also the reason why you rarely get it below 20 spin ( 400 ticket ) , because it is only 8% chance.And that's a huge difference.

Note : draw rate above is just example and not real representation of the draw rate in mobile legend lucky spin .



Post time 2019-7-9 08:43 AM | Show all posts
MONEYTOON
MOONEY TOON
MONEY MONEYYY

Comments

I already see this coming hahaha  Post time 2019-7-9 10:11 AM
Post time 2019-7-9 11:22 AM | Show all posts
Edited by CharlieFong at 2019-7-9 11:46 AM
diwang replied at 2019-7-9 02:02 AM
This is false assumption , the draw rate increased with each spin .
Many people get the feeling be ...

Please don't give false calculation and explanation. Probability not calculate like what you gave. Probability will not change unless you give a specific condition.

1) By explanation:
1%=1/100, mean 1 out of 100; 0.4%=1/250, mean 1 out of 250
In words: you have to draw 250 times to get the 1.


2) By calculation:
You have to use Binomial to calculate multiple times occur. Lets take 50 draws:
    Chance to get at least 1 in 50 draws is:
    1 - 50C0 x 0.004^0 x 0.996^50 = 0.1816, is 18.16%

    Chance to get exactly 1 in 50 draws is:
    50C1 x 0.004^1 x 0.996^49 = 0.1643, is 16.43%


3) Minimum draws to get the 1:
There is no 100% chance to get the 1, but we can set very high chance to get it. Lets set it to 95%
    1 - nC0 x 0.004^0 x 0.996^n >= 0.95
         nC0 x 0.004^0 x 0.996^n <= 0.05
            (do your calculation here)
                                            n >= 747.99.....
                                            n = 748
Minimum draws is 748.

Comments

Wow...your calculations make me impressive.  Post time 2019-7-9 09:03 PM
Post time 2019-7-9 03:49 PM | Show all posts
Edited by diwang at 2019-7-9 03:56 PM

Firstly ....
1%=1/100, mean 1 out of 100; 0.4%=1/250, mean 1 out of 250
In words: you have to draw 250 times to get the 1.

This is false ground idea about probability . In mathematic , 1% is 1 from 250 , in probability , 1% is your chance to get it trough randomization , you can roll 1000 time and still not get it if the randomization system keep giving you "no" .  Mathematic =/= probability , mathematic itself is just a way to calculate probability .
Someone already try making virtual randomization machine , and the result is inaccurate by some percentage from calculation ( and the percentage itself keep changing depends on the "luck" ) , can be higher or can be lower  , because there is no way to exactly predict probability.
2) By calculation:
You have to use Binomial to calculate multiple times occur. Lets take 50 draws:
    Chance to get at least 1 in 50 draws is:
    1 - 50C0 x 0.004^0 x 0.996^50 = 0.1816, is 18.16%

    Chance to get exactly 1 in 50 draws is:
    50C1 x 0.004^1 x 0.996^49 = 0.1643, is 16.43%

It is the same as i explained above , only from different perspective , i just tried to avoid too much math because math has side effect in mood .

3) Minimum draws to get the 1:
There is no 100% chance to get the 1, but we can set very high chance to get it. Lets set it to 95%
    1 - nC0 x 0.004^0 x 0.996^n >= 0.95
         nC0 x 0.004^0 x 0.996^n <= 0.05
            (do your calculation here)
                                            n >= 747.99.....
                                            n = 748
Minimum draws is 748.

Math =/= probability , in math it called "minimum" because math doesn't understand what it tries to calculate , but in probability perspective , it still called "chance"  , you can have 99.6% chance to get it and still didn't get it , and you can have 0.4% and still get it if you're lucky , because it's "probability" ....
Post time 2019-7-10 11:56 AM | Show all posts
diwang replied at 2019-7-9 03:49 PM
Firstly ....

This is false ground idea about probability . In mathematic , 1% is 1 from 250 , in pr ...

Are you sure you know what you are talking about here? Probability is part of Mathematics. It is one of the topic for Year 4 students (IGCSE level), and you have to learn detail from Year 10 (aka high grade student) above. There is even course about probability in university. If you wish to interview in any casino, you have to get 4.0 in probability (maybe 3.96 in some casino).

Probability can by calculated by maths. I give the simplest example, a fair coin. The expected outcome should be 1:1. If you toss a coin 10 times, the outcome may not 50:50, it may 2:8, or 10:0, or 7:3; if you toss 100 times, it may 40:60, or 53:47, or worst case 38:72. But if you toss many times like 1000, the outcome should be close to 1:1. If you get the outcome others than 1:1, then it is not a fair coin. Someone has did something on the coin. That is what the author try to said in this thread.

You said it still call "chance", you said depends on the "luck". This is the reason why casino and number lottery centre getting richer and richer. All the customer has the same mind: "I lose yesterday, so I must win today." "I feel lucky today." "I have great lose, but there is still a chance." And, do you know that casino is not allow who expert in Mathematics to enter? Try tell them you are Master graduate from Mathematics, surely they will black list you.

If Mathematics =/= probability, then there is no such statistic, statistic is foundation of probability, so survey done by MLBB is useless. Then why we have "%" sign? Percentage is part of probability in maths. There should no Binomial Distribution, Normal Distribution, Poison Distribution, Kai Square Distribution, or whatever distribution. The common data show in statistic is Normal Distribution and Poison Distribution.

Please gain enough knowledge before debating with someone else. Your reply/comment shows that either you are just a kid or someone did not finish their studies.  


P/S: 1%=0.01=1/100=1 in 100; 1 in 250=1/250=0.004=0.4%. So 1% is not 1 from 250.
Post time 2019-7-10 12:41 PM | Show all posts
@AZNUR
I'm Mathematics Degree student graduated. Those calculation is merely like adding from 1 to 10 for me. Anyways, thanks for your praise.
Post time 2019-7-10 11:45 PM From mobile phone | Show all posts
CharlieFong replied at 2019-7-10 12:41 PM
@AZNUR
I'm Mathematics Degree student graduated. Those calculation is merely like adding from 1 to  ...

Just ignore diwang. Dont waste your precious time to read his comment / reply.
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